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Player Retention by the numbers


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#1 Superkamikazee

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Posted April 11 2014 - 05:04 PM

So it's been around a month since Hawkens big Steam debut, and out of curiosity I thought I'd take a peek at Hawkens player count. I was a little off put by what I saw...
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Looks like there are spikes in activity, but there appears to be a consistent downward trend in active Hawken players. Hawken is currently #50 in the Steam charts.

I think Hawkens economy is partially to blame for this (to an extent it's current F2P model), but I'd really like to hear what others think could be the root of the problem here.

Rob

Edited by Superkamikazee, April 11 2014 - 05:05 PM.


#2 Ashfire908

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Posted April 11 2014 - 05:18 PM

Player retention is not 100% for game launches. Especially games not fully released.
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#3 Muffintrumpet

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Posted April 11 2014 - 05:40 PM

why is it not doing well?
I don't know but I can echo the common feedback I've heard from people I've introduced to the game:
(of which none still play)
- it's not fast enough to keep the twitch gamers happy
- it's not mech enough to keep the mech gamers enthralled
- almost every match is rubbish for one reason or another in pug play
- the F2P system is unpalatable

I'm far from convinced that the game will see a significant and sustained reversal of fortunes once it loses its 'early access' tag

"To the untrained eye this chart may indeed appear to demonstrate a steep and sustained downward trend; however, what you're actually seeing is the line being dragged down because of the strengthening gravitational pull of a player base that is actually increasing in density.  Rest assured, this is all going completely according to plan."


#4 BigLag

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Posted April 13 2014 - 12:39 AM

Ugh....what really stands out is how few people have actually tried Hawken out.

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I'll compare it to another fav game of mine (CS - Go). This game has been released a while back, but still holds a substantial player base

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I use CS Go  as a benchmark for what defines a successful game. Servers are full, lots of player, bigger playground.


So a few thoughts come to mind when maxing philosophically about Hawken's future.

Old saying – If You’re Not Growing, You’re Dying.
We're seeing a shrink in player base after the spike on Mar 9th. It may even return to the numbers we've seen pre-steam (about 2000-3000 / day). As veteran players leave, get busy or get bored, and no new blood to replace them, I suspect the game may eventually dwindle to the point it doesn't make financial sense to continue working on it.

If that becomes the case, unless the community can host it's own servers and create new content, that would be it for Hawken.


F2P?
Maybe free to play is not the best approach marketing it and moving forward, F2P comes with a lot of negative stigma.

I've played a few MMORPG's with month sub (Eve, EnB, Wow, etc) and many F2P MMO's. between the 2, I was happy to pay the sub (for years) to play with a group of people that really wanted to be there and the game was properly administrated & maintained.

My experience with full F2P has been that they always had crappy players and crappy service. If a player gets banned... no biggy.. new email.. new account.. back to being a crappy human being.

Maybe just charge $10/$15 for the game, give new players a starter package of a couple mechs, some upgrades, some HC and MC. Drops the F2P label, puts money into the pockets of the developers / publisher and gives Adhesive some capital to make new maps, expand server quality and quantity.. etc...

Also rethink the micro transaction structures you have in place. Trying to squeeze everything you can out of your player base can induce a form of fatigue that would be counter productive.  "Playing because you get more gear" doesn't have the same stay and replay power as "playing because it's truly fun" does

Jonathan Blow has a good talk on it from a session at RICE university http://youtu.be/SqFu5O-oPmU


More content.... Involve the community?
Allow custom map creation from the community. Might be a good way to outsource some content development work load. Provide an SDK which points to available tools, guides sizing map elements, maybe provide a model library.

At least open the door, even if nobody walks through.


More and better marketing?
Yeah, really need to get the word out more. Somehow find ways of getting people to try the game. To be honest, I stumbled onto this game by accident when I was bored one day and in the mood to try something new.

Maybe we can change "F2P" to "Test Pilot" and limit free play to only test drive. If you like it, buy the Box ($15) and get couple mechs, a few other thing and the ability to start to owning other mechs afterwards.  

That way people can check out this cool game without committing dollars and see it's pretty darn good. However, I still hate the "Free to Play" label.



Anyway, just some old-man game geezer opinions. Not sure what the best way to draw people to this world of mech combat. Considering the work put into it and how fun it is, would be a shame if it didn't survive.

Edited by BigLag, April 13 2014 - 01:19 AM.


#5 Superkamikazee

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Posted April 13 2014 - 10:54 AM

I don't see F2P going away, but I agree with  most everything you've mentioned and discussed.

#6 GGGanjaMan

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Posted April 13 2014 - 11:08 AM

There's probably a variety of reasons, and I think BigLag has some valid points above. I also posted about a specific reason on the steam forums, copy/pasted below:

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When this game went F2P on steam early March, that weekend saw a peak of 8.3K+ players. A large part of those numbers were from an influx of brand new players (me included). The average has since dropped to around 3K players now. That's only a ~37% retention of players. What's happened? Now the distinction with Hawken is that it is not a "new" game, meaning the steam release was not the game release. The game itself seems to have been around for over a year, with its own dedicated playerbase. Problems arise when you have the influx of new players suddenly mixed into the pool of the already experienced "pro" players. That problem of retaining the new playerbase will continue as long as newer players in the future join and get mixed in with the current active players.

I wonder how many of those players quit because they got discouraged over skill differences. There isn't much in place with our current match-making system to protect the newer playerbase. Match-making currently freely matches level 10s with level 30s in games. I can only imagine what those newer players feel as they repeatedly get stomped. There should really be no reason why a lvl >10 player and a lvl 30 player are being placed/matched in the same game. I understand that levels don't really signify much besides time spent playing and don't indicate skill; but that said, you can get to lvl 10 with just a couple hours of play-time. That just isn't enough experience to compete with those higher up.

What I propose for match-making is at the lower levels, it needs to be a lot more selective/stricter in placement. You need more protection for the starting playerbase - you want to nurture those players to stay and grow with the game, not scare them away by having high MMRs stomp their faces in within the first few hours of gameplay. For example, take all level 1-10 players and match them with only other 1-10's. Next up, you could have the levels 10-20 or so restricted into their own matches. After that point, you can have placement start being dictated by their "MMR" ranks. This will improve the overall experience for everyone, & allow newer players to learn the ropes with other similarly non-experienced players. The numbers I put above are just for examples - it doesn't have to use hard cut-offs, but the general idea of it should work.

Now before you think I'm whining for myself, I have a current MMR rank of 2K+ and am level 30 myself, gained over this past 1 month. I also never had much difficulty (but then again, I've had background FPS experience). But I've tried introducing this game to a couple friends now, and they all generally seem turned off after a few matches when they experience the skill difference first-hand. I make it a point to never even party/play with them until they hit lvl~15 or so by themselves, but it seems they're having to face other 2K+ MMR players in their games without my interference even. Which doesn't surprise me because I myself have seen level 1-10s matched into my own games.

Currently, MMR placement is just too open and needs to get more restrictive in general. The MMR spread on some servers is too damn high. Why is a spread of 700+ points even possible? I'd say it's not even fun for the higher ranks to have to deal with newbies in their games. I can understand this may have something to do with having a small playerbase and having to make do with what you have. But as the playerbase starts to grow, I hope match-making will be tweaked to get more restrictive to address these issues.

I think there's something to be said about having close games, where every point is hard fought for, and the match is evenly paced to the end. You get excited about those games, and you find your team actually playing to make an impact. Games that are evenly matched are fun, as opposed to games that end up being one-sided stomps. Unfortunately, the latter seems to be more prevalent and I can only blame the mechanics of the current match making system.


#7 ASneakyFox

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Posted April 13 2014 - 12:35 PM

i think around march was when they had some major frontpage ads for the game on steam. im sure a lot of people saw them.

as for retention. its always been my opinion the issue is more of the appearance of the hawken home screen. it simply looks like a pay-2-win game because of the prominence of things like the atomic dual currencies (mc and hc), immediately being shown where to buy equipment and mechs etc etc

now, imo. and Im sure it follows for most of us. hawken is not play to win.. I think the game's apperances need to show that. Look at the dota2 home screen, and compare it to hakwens... theres a huge difference in how the game's presents itself even though the core gameplay standards are held to the same degree by their developers.

i havet played in a competitive match for years. but i think id really like to form a team play some competitive siege mode. I wish the playerbase was there to support some kind of ladder or competition.

Edited by ASneakyFox, April 13 2014 - 12:37 PM.


#8 DieselCat

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Posted April 13 2014 - 12:37 PM

The grind seems to be much tougher than it use to be along with the disparity in skill levels when new players first start. Many don't want to stick around for the long haul. :huh: ...game needs a lot more players to make up for this.

*+
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#9 Wraithknight

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Posted April 13 2014 - 12:47 PM

As a player who began their HAWKEN journey when the game came to STEAM and has tried and failed to get many friends into the experience let me share my experiences:

Complaints by friends/acquaintances in order of frequency:

1. The free to play model is out of line with other free to play experiences
             Simply put, everything is far too expensive and the customization system is unappealing to many players (somewhat to myself as well, however I stick with it).  The most excessively expensive items seem to be, well, items...  Players don't want to grind for hours and hours to be able to afford an item that they may not even end up using in the long run.  Items like MG-Turret are SOOOO expensive that some players save up to get it with a certain expectation, and then when it ends up being utterly useless they feel ripped off and unsatisfied.  Internals aren't too out of whack, but items are, and so are alternate weapons - being as expensive as just getting another mech.  Many friends have told me "Why would I buy an alternate weapon when I can just get another new mech?".

             The customization system is also really out of sync with a feeling of "value per dollar".  Unlocking a set of customizations for a single mech can be excruciatingly expensive, ESPECIALLY since you can't share seemingly class universal parts between mechs of the same class...  Here's an example of price point comparison.

Here we have the Grenadier:
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Here we have the Grenadier with a kind of "Sand Shark" customization scheme.  Brass Shark Upper, Muklashy Arms, Lower, and Middle, Pixel Tan Paint, Ignite Thrusters, and RD-L4NC3T Drone:  2404 MC or $16.69 USD (based on a model of 144MC/$1 per the $25 - 3600MC price point)
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Look a little different, enough to feel customized.  

Now, what can we get for customizations for $16.69 in other f2p games?

Let's take League of Legends and DotA 2, two of the most popular f2p games:

In league for $25 you get 3400 RP, enough to purchase 3 full price skins and 1 cheap skin/1 on sale skin.
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As you can see, that's 4 different looks for the same character for the price of 1 different look for a mech in Hawken.

DotA 2 has an even more cost efficient model, using armor "sets" similar to chassis parts in Hawken, but with more variation, colours, and overall more value.  Again, like League, you can get 4 sets for rougly $16USD.
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Also, with both League of Legends and DotA 2, the only thing you'd really NEED to spend real money on is customization, and not functional items and "pay to win" material.  League of Legends actually makes it so you CANNOT buy runes with real money, dissuading any idea of a "pay to win" environment and giving players something that they can feel good about grinding towards.  DotA 2 has no runes, no masteries, and all the heroes and permanently free to play, meaning the only thing you ever need to buy are customizations.

Also worth noting is that League of Legends has a built in refund system and DotA 2 has a marketplace system, meaning if you buy something you REALLY don't end up liking you can either fully refund it, or trade it with someone else.  Both games also have a gifting system, allowing players to help each other out with new content.  This is something Hawken REALLY needs, especially for people like myself who are sitting on a garage with 10 Technicians in it (one from every $25 MC card...).

I've had a couple friends who have quit Hawken solely based on the principle of "pay to win", seeing that I have a fully outfitted mech at rank 1, with MK-III items and Internals and they have a Fred with nothing on it.  The sad part is that the "pay to win" system is currently needed to keep ANYONE playing the game with a new account, since new players are frequently matched with high level players with outfitted mechs and a LOT more skill.  Being stuck in a server with an empty Fred against 3 Berserkers with Air Comp/Deflectors/MK-III Det, a Brawler with Armor Fusor/MK-III Repair Charge, and a Raider with Air Comp/Deflectors, HE-MK-III, and Radar Scrambler feels like you're not even playing the same game (thank you based matchmaking).

This brings me to point number 2:

2. Matchmaking is broken:
           Many friends have quit out of sheer frustration at losing 15 Siege games in a row due to high MMR players with fully outfitted mechs taking a steaming fuzzy-bunny all over them.  I've experienced much of the same things, but luckily I'm a bit more patient than some and just really love the gameplay.  When you play for 6 hours and can't get your win of the day bonus it really does feel hopeless to say the least.  The worst thing is when high MMR players "toy" with "noobs" and allow them to hold the AA simply so they can pick them off over and over, never letting the game progress, but farming XP for as long as they can.

3. Lack of developer interaction:
           One thing that (hate to bring them back into, but I digress) LoL and DotA have that makes the community stick with them is developer interaction.  The developers are always on the forums, asking for suggestions, advice, and commenting on player woes and concerns.  The community gets a feeling that they're actually cared about and valued and that they can see the game growing and progressing and feel like they're a part of the development process (whether they really are or not).  This is WAY more important for smaller games like Hawken that are still developing and growing and need to develop a strong and dedicated community that feels loyalty to the developers and the game itself.  Without the feeling that the developers "care" about the community it is more difficult for players to stay committed to a game, especially one with as many glaring imbalance issues as Hawken (though larger more developed games are CERTAINLY not beyond imbalance and glaring issues).

Point 4 time:
4. Imbalance issues create pissed off players.
            New players having to deal with things like the Berserker hovering around their head and towing the fuzzy bunny out of them, the Incinerator's never-ending torrent of fire and bullets, and getting alpha goomba stomped by Raiders can dissuade players from even wanting to learn the game.  This ties into the matchmaking point, but the fact that even higher MMR players complain about many of these mechanics mean the lower tier players have no hope that anything will improve for them.  Getting outplayed is always going to happen, but feeling like there's no hope other than playing the same broken strategies can really dissuade new players from committing to an experience for any length of time.

5. Optimization
           This is gonna be my last point for now, and is one of the least important, but still complained about, is the way the games engine is optimized.  Games like League, DotA, Smite, SWTOR, etc... are able to scale down their graphics and effects and still retain the gameplay, allowing players with lower budget machines or just old machines to be able to play the game while still providing top tier visual aesthetics for those players with powerful rigs.  Hawken is simply poorly optimized.  Many friends have had to submit to playing at 20fps on low settings and never really enjoy the experience as a result.  Other games have a wide appeal based on the fact that they can be played on anything with at least decent framerate.  I have a 7 year old laptop that can run league at 50fps on lowish settings and a newer machine that can run it at 120fps on maximum settings, but I can still enjoy playing it on both machines, admittedly with a different aesthetic satisfaction.  My 4 year old desktop to the right of me cannot run Hawken at ALL, but can run DotA 2, League, Dawn of War II, and many other multiplayer games that I enjoy playing with guests.  It's hard to get friends into a game that can't be played as universally as other, more easily accessible games.  I understand the need for technological and graphical progression, but when it heavily limits the player base of a growing f2p game the trade off isn't worth it.

These are just some of the complaints/issues that other new players/myself have had.  I welcome comments and critique of my points, remember I'm a fairly new player, but I have spent a decent amount of money and time on Hawken so far and am fairly committed to it myself, but find it hard to get friends into the experience for some of the reasons above.

Thank you all for your time.

#10 angryhampster

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Posted April 13 2014 - 12:52 PM

Whatever it is. We nees competitive scene asap. New mechs for fresh content, and lower prices.    

Weapons shouldnt cost the same as mechs.   :(
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#11 Bigfoot

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Posted April 13 2014 - 01:11 PM

View Postangryhampster, on April 13 2014 - 12:52 PM, said:

Whatever it is. We nees competitive scene asap. New mechs for fresh content, and lower prices.    

Weapons shouldnt cost the same as mechs.   :(

What we NEED is functionality of basic game functions that facilitate a sense of community.  Lobby chat rooms to gather, functional VOIP, matchmaking that works, the ability to play with friends and forums that aren't littered with spam.  As it stands, the focus remains on bells and whistles rather than the fundamental social aspects that carry a game through its growing pains.

#12 MechCraft

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Posted April 13 2014 - 01:13 PM

View PostWraithknight, on April 13 2014 - 12:47 PM, said:

lots of stuff

Great post, thanks for taking the time to write it up. It's good to get some perspective from newer players since ultimately those are the people Hawken needs to hook in order to stay alive.

When new players are leaving the game in droves and the community consistently fails to significantly expand, it's time to take a step back and see what impressions people are getting from the game and what changes need to take priority as a result.

Edited by MechCraft, April 13 2014 - 01:41 PM.

Beware of ninjas.

#13 AboveTheSky

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Posted April 13 2014 - 01:16 PM

What u want from a beta game?and other problem is the balance new players cant stand against level 30 player

Edited by AboveTheSky, April 13 2014 - 01:20 PM.

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#14 angryhampster

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Posted April 13 2014 - 01:22 PM

when a game is released, that's just the beginning of advertising and  the marketing.

it never stops.


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#15 BigLag

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Posted April 13 2014 - 01:42 PM

Some pretty good points Ganja. The key points that caught my attention from your post were

· That's only a ~37% retention of players…
· The game itself seems to have been around for over a year, with its own dedicated player base…
· Match-making system to protect the newer playerbase…

Match Making:
Match making is a real hot topic these days. Most people would like to separate the training wheels area from the big boy playground. I did read on thread that made a very valid point about why bother to separate the players, just like old school FPS games.

However, I don’t think proper match making can be done well right now. Relatively small player base with an inordinate number of vets/dedicated long timers. We just don’t have the player count to allow for matches to be balance-able.

In order to allow people to play, servers will have to que anyone ready to go, regardless of their rank.

However, this has a negative effect on player experience, player retention and (with a growing bad reputation) new player counts.

Marketing
A lot of my thoughts circle back to player base which is a result of poor marketing. Why do I think that?

I’m scoring Game Design very high. The game mechanics work well together to form a gaming experience which is fun.  

The play mechanics, user interface/game controls, general game functionality/abilities, and game element balancing seem to have very good synergy (they work well together).

Minor gripes on weapon riser times and air play, but on the whole the game plays well/smoothly.

So the game is made well, it looks good, is fun to play, robots with guns, lots of “cool factor”, but small player base??!! All together it calls me attention toward marketing. If Hawken were a Ferrari, marketing would be the “breaks” when it should be the “GAS”.

Instead of squeezing the small player base for money, which will dry up when we have purchased all mech and internals, go after the 2 billion gamers out there that haven’t tried Hawken.

Edited by BigLag, April 13 2014 - 02:07 PM.


#16 mccrorie

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Posted April 13 2014 - 01:43 PM

So much win in this thread.

#17 Wraithknight

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Posted April 13 2014 - 02:03 PM

View PostBigLag, on April 13 2014 - 01:42 PM, said:

If Hawken were a Ferrari, marketing would be the “breaks” when it should be the “GAS”.
Instead of squeezing the small player base for money, which will dry up when we have purchased all mech and internals, go after the 2 billion gamers out there that haven’t tried Hawken.

I couldn't agree with you more BigLag.  They're trying to shake down the dedicated players rather than tapping into the massive financial windfall that is "new players".  Give new players cheap but "cool" things to buy and don't get caught up in small money "gripes" like per-mech chassis/thruster/paint unlocks and they'll make wayyyy more money than they are with the current economic system they're seemingly obsessed with.

#18 Sylhiri

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Posted April 13 2014 - 02:21 PM

View PostBigfoot, on April 13 2014 - 01:11 PM, said:

Lobby chat rooms to gather...

I've never played an online game where that was a good idea, especially F2P Shooters.

[13:14] <nonsiccus_work> uh oh

there's gravy in my keyboard

----------------------------------------------------------------------

[11:18] <+shosca> if you wanna play ar, go play zerker
[11:18] <Hyginos> and if you want to play zerker, go smc
[11:19] <someone> if you want to play sustain, please go and die in hell


#19 Wraithknight

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Posted April 13 2014 - 02:21 PM

View Postangryhampster, on April 13 2014 - 12:52 PM, said:

Whatever it is. We nees competitive scene asap.

I couldn't agree with this more either.  I remember back in the "early" days of League of Legends, you know what promoted it?  Streamers.  Players like HotshotGG, Reginald, and SaintVicious provided the masses with an "easy in" and faces to relate to the game.  People discovered their streams and wanted to "play like the pros".  These players were interesting to watch, and provided the community with insightful commentary, entertainment, and the feeling that the game was going places, especially when Riot Games began to acknowledge the efforts of these pro players and worked with them to promote the game.  Hawken could REALLY benefit from something similar, dedicated pros hosting streams while scrimming/pubbing and commentating on their choices and actions, allowing low tier or new players to get an insight into the higher tier gameplay and strategies.

Guides are another thing that really help build a community.  There are lots of great guides out there, but they're not very widespread.  Players like Saturnine have created amazing resources for the community but they're limited to the hawken forums and steam community.  Third party sites like Mobafire, Solomid, and Reign of Gaming created external communities and resource banks for League in it's early days and gave the impression that the game was a "big deal".  These kind of resources would be immensely important for growing Hawken as a game and a community.  I personally would LOVE to be able to find descriptive video guides for the mechs/builds that I want to try to learn.  I go on youtube and look for "EOC Infiltrator Hawken" and I find nothing but 25 minute long gameplay videos with no commentary, CoD style "MLG 2 pro 4 u" dubstep kill compilations, or "Let's Plays" by players who are just checking out the game for the first time or don't know how to explain the intricacies of high level play and strategy.

The biggest thing that needs to happen, which I briefly discussed in my text wall above, was developer interaction (at least with the pro players).  When the pro players feel that they're opinions are being honoured and valued and that their time spent mastering the game is taken seriously they are more likely to promote the game and recruit new players to the community.  When pro players feel like they have to build themselves up in the communities eyes and that the developers care no more about these dedicated members of the community than the guy who just started yesterday (who is still very important however) they don't bother to promote, they don't bother to stream, they don't feel proud of their actions and the system they have worked so hard to master.  The developers NEED to acknowledge the pros, promote them, and work with them to build marketing materials, whether social networking, advertising, streaming, or events.  (Events need to happen...)

This kind of hierarchy and interaction between players and developers is what separates the "League of Legends" from the "Heroes of Newerth".  The wildly successful from the widely ignored and forgotten.

@Adhesive and Meteor, pay attention to your pros, pay attention to your masses, pay attention to the business models that have worked for others, that inspire community, that inspire new players to KEEP playing, that inspire them to want to "play like the pros".  It's easy for a company to ignore the customers and subscribe to the soulless "if we make it they'll buy it" mentality, but companies who take that approach are a dime a dozen and oft forgotten and driven into obscurity to make room for the companies that have an intelligent business model, an interactive community/staff relationship, and a progressive and open development model.

Edited by Wraithknight, April 13 2014 - 02:25 PM.


#20 Xacius

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Posted April 13 2014 - 02:37 PM

The main problem is that there isn't much to keep people playing.  New players join up, and a lot of them seem to have fun, but then they play for 50+ hours and realize it's just the same thing over and over.  There isn't enough variation:

1. 9 maps, 3 of which are simply not fun to play on

2. 17 classes, the majority of which share weapons in some way.  

3. Only four game modes, 2 of which are deathmatch, and the other two are glorified king of the hill with conditions.  

4. Hit-or-miss matchmaking.  4v5's and 5v6's are more prevalent in Hawken than in any other game I've played.  With no checks or balances to prevent it, all it does is make players unhappy.  

5. Lack of competitive matchmaking/ladder system.  Hopefully they really pull through in the coming months.  I can see a lot of people putting time in if a competitive ranking system gets implemented.  


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