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Playerbase: Shrinking... but Skilled

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#1
Call_Me_Ishmael

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A post in another thread summed up a thought I'd had a lot lately.

 

We're all better.  Newbs have it REALLY hard.  The shrinking playerbase has brought advanced tactics and phenominal twitch-play/aim/reflex play down into the vanguard/mainstream of Hawken players.

 

MMR means little anymore, as all players get into the few servers playing.  Smurfing/Alts has made MMR much steeper in value: if you get over 1600, you're playing 3+ year vets who know all the tricks.  If you are 1400, you're playing 1250 newbs or you're playihng someone who "would have been 2200 in '2014 MMR points'".

 

We, nearly all, even Kittens, who I watched play Predator and think is *much* improved from where I would guess he thinks he still is (what a sentence this is), are really setting a high bar.  Everyone I've seen lately has dodge timing and body-block/separation timing.  Everyone has secondary timing.  Everyone uses radar and predicts.  Everyone knows the maps and how to use verticality/3-dimensions.  Everyone has reasonable aim and learned to put ordnance where people *will be*.

 

Yes, there are still standouts.  There always will be.  For the most part, I sense we've lifted the meta,  and the median (though MMR as a number is compressing).  And, our 'relative position' to players we recognize may or may not have changed, but a good deal of us would have handed the elite of two years ago their asses (at first contact.  Then players would learn and adapt...).

 

In 1898, the head of the US Patent Office claimed that all inventions which could be made had been made.  Are we near the skill ceiling as a playerbase? 

 

How much higher does it go in a small pool?

 

What happens if/when we do get a new platform/influx of new users (if that ever comes to pass)?  I think it would need to be pretty massive, or we'd continue to face exactly what we see now:  about 1 new player in 50 making it over the skill hump (such as Kittens).

 

Kittens, I hope you don't mind me using you as a recent/relevant example. 

 

I'm positive others have the same thought, and I'm pretty certain some of you will offer other opinions.  What are your thoughts?


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#2
Hyginos

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I think that a lot of "advanced" movement in Hawken (boost-dodge combos, skating, boost hopping, etc) are very easy to replicate by observation, but very difficult to intuit in a vacuum.

With such a number of new players coming in, they are exposed to the more complex movement earlier, and learn it more quickly as they know nothing else.


Edited by Hyginos, 05 June 2016 - 06:30 AM.

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#3
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#4
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#5
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#6
Pandabaron

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Because the games meta hasn't changed in god knows how long, all of us have pretty much mastered it's concepts. we all know you should equip a mech only with EMP's, Or shields, Or repair orbs (with the partial exception of the two alpha strikers and detonators) It must've taken me a bit of game time to figure this out, but i know it now because they are simply the strongest items. Or the fact that an experienced player knows how to identify almost instantaneously what is a scrambler target and what isn't by the way the target moves on the radar. You explain that to any new player and they'll think it's literally witchcraft.

 

I'd go as far as to say, depending on the score and the mech selection the other team has as i go into the match, I'd know exactly which mech to pick to make the game fair or give the team i'm in a massive catch-up advantage. i could easily abuse this power and just annihilate new players constantly, over and over again, alas some stupid veteran players do..

Another startling example is that the game almost has it's own unspoken laws. On European servers there is some crazy 'gentleman's agreements' where you 'don't use scanners' you 'can't tech on a pub team that has more players in it than the other team' and you 'don't use orblord loadouts' or rather it's certainly frowned upon by the high tiers of play. i feel because nothing has changed about the game, there is practically nothing more to master.

 

I think that a lot of "advanced" movement in Hawken (boost-dodge combos, skating, boost hopping, etc) are very easy to replicate by observation, but very difficult to intuit in a vacuum.

 

I partially agree, but then there is stuff like using the 180 air in a raider. I know this is a rather extreme example, and it's not game breaking or anything, but.. popping it's ability, boosting past your enemy for a close range shot quickly jumping, using the 180 air and boosting back again across the other side of the enemy, firing again, while your prey wonders what the hell is going on as you likely kill them in the process. you cannot learn that immediately by watching, only by dedicated practice, as is the case with learning how the radar works, it takes time to restrain yourself from boosting everywhere because it's cool (no boosting or firing please new guy, trying to be more sneaky here!) I personally have a little way to go before i'm crammed into the top of the skill ceiling, but i'm getting close, we are all very close. 

(I once more hear another cry for new content faintly on the wind..)


Edited by (KDR) Pandabaron, 05 June 2016 - 12:45 PM.

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#7
PsychedelicGrass

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Whenever I get someone to try this game they quit pretty quickly.. all of them said it was because the game seemed too difficult to get into and they were getting rekt every game. It sucks but that's what happens when you don't really have any new players and mostly everyone has been playing for a long time :/

Edited by PsychedelicGrass, 05 June 2016 - 01:23 PM.

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#8
JackVandal

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I've see this myself to some degree, a general distillation of skill among those who play. I think it will make it harder for any new player, though, with enough of them they'll fill servers and hopeful be isolated (by theoretical patch) to help insulate them from the wolves, or worse, turkeys.


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#9
Morquedeas

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If they are indeed going in the direction the rumors suggest, none of this will matter.

 

Think about it, console Hawken in China will be almost entirely new players that we probably won't ever play with (cross platform servers would be stupid and who's going to play on China servers if they still did it).  Console controllers will also probably effectively reduce the skill ceiling.

 

Think about it, releasing on a console in China will effectively be like releasing the game for the first time, and that game will be essentially isolated from players like us that "ruin" the skill spread for new players.



#10
Siamenis

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Are we near the skill ceiling as a playerbase? 

 

Try dealing consistent damage without detonating TOWs or grenades in mid-air. That's a whole new skill niche to explore.



#11
TurquoiseTortoise

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"We, nearly all, even Kittens, who I watched play Predator and think is *much* improved from where I would guess he thinks he still is (what a sentence this is), are really setting a high bar."

... wut.

 

i think theres more to master.

radar feints, false flanks, 180 air, tag-in, lure, actual map strategy derived from military ideals, watching the cooldown on opponent weapons, getting an enemy stuck on map chunks, noticing enemy turnspeed and figuring best strafe circle size blahblahblah

 

anyway yah games dying


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#12
JeffMagnum

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If they are indeed going in the direction the rumors suggest, none of this will matter.

 

Think about it, console Hawken in China will be almost entirely new players that we probably won't ever play with (cross platform servers would be stupid and who's going to play on China servers if they still did it).  Console controllers will also probably effectively reduce the skill ceiling.

 

Think about it, releasing on a console in China will effectively be like releasing the game for the first time, and that game will be essentially isolated from players like us that "ruin" the skill spread for new players.

 

Yeah, this is what I'm worried about personally, especially since it makes the most sense from a financial standpoint. I'm sure the PC playerbase and general interest will pick up temporarily when Hawken releases on consoles, but I don't see a lot of people sticking around here unless Reloaded dumps considerable money into the platform to clean up a lot of issues that have developed. I imagine the Chinese console market in particular is mostly isolated from the criticisms Hawken has received so far plus has significantly more potential for short-term growth so I'm not sure why the majority of Reloaded's money would be allocated toward PC development when they'd not only have to clean up ADH's internal mess but also shake off the reputation for cheating and being P2W that the game currently has.

 

At the price they apparently got the title for, they were likely investing more in the IP rights than the actual game in its current state. Maybe not initially, but after they saw how much work it'd take to get things up and running they probably decided to switch focus to consoles and get a fresh start. I'd like to be pleasantly surprised, but in the near future I don't see anything happening on PC especially since they'd have to compete with Overwatch, Titanfall 2 (which are both on consoles but not as significant a threat as they are on PC, relatively speaking), and UT if they relaunched soon.

 

The mechanics, pacing, and aesthetics of the game, especially on controllers where there's a lower skill ceiling, are also very well suited to VR compared to most FPS games. The Tomahawk F1 is going to support its own HMD in the future, so getting in as a launch title seems like an easy way to expand into that potentially huge emerging market.

 

But I'll still play off and on until the servers go down anyway.


Edited by Brumbpo Tungus, 05 June 2016 - 03:15 PM.

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#13
ATX22

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I thought things here were bad but... 



#14
JeffMagnum

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The main medium term optimistic prediction I have for us is Hawken doing pretty well in China and then Reloaded swinging around to relaunch for wider Oculus and Vive adoption in the West (helped by the 480's release and Nvidia's future offerings to compete with it at the ~$200 price range) with some of those funds before larger risk-averse companies eat up all of that market. Hawken already has rudimentary Oculus support, so I assume getting it working on HMDs wouldn't be terribly difficult. 

 

If Reloaded plays things more conservatively, assuming they're targeting PC at all, they might wait until next-gen GPU architectures and more user-friendly HMDs come out for VR's mass adoption and then realize they've missed their chance as larger developers leverage their existing capital to rapidly create new titles which would kill their first-mover advantage. 

 

Plus I think the mech game genre is going to grow a lot in the next five years or so both due to VR allowing for more immersive experiences and also increased public interest from advances in real-life powered exoskeletons, military robots, and robot combat. That would give Reloaded more incentive to aggressively develop Hawken as opposed to the other games they have.

 

Increased tensions with China due to the South China Sea shitshow could also cause Reloaded to focus more on the US market if economic sanctions of some sort are enacted that make doing business overseas less profitable, but I don't really want to talk geopolitics here lol.


Edited by Brumbpo Tungus, 05 June 2016 - 04:10 PM.

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#15
harmless_kittens

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The better players get, though, the more likely that new players will be overwhelmed.  Although in fairness, for every new player that I see complaining I see another one saying "This game is cool!"  

 

Personally, Predator is the only reason I am still here.  I can, generally, pick my battles and observe battle tactics and maneuvers without being slaughtered, and usually keep my K/D ratio above 1.  Without Predator I simply would not enjoy the game anymore and quit.  Meanwhile my son, Kaotic_Beaver, is approaching 2000 MMR, and he plays about 1/4 the time that I do (he plays in the afternoons).  So a new player still CAN get good at the game, if they have fast enough reflexes :)


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#16
lo_spaghetto

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everyone sux


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#17
angryhampster

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since you asked for a hamster's opinion, i shall share my opinion.

 

 

 

We're all better.  Newbs have it REALLY hard.  The shrinking playerbase has brought advanced tactics and phenominal twitch-play/aim/reflex play down into the vanguard/mainstream of Hawken players.

 

 

these noobs are like baby chicks to the meatgrinder. jumping straight to multiplayer instead of being slowly guided to become a decent mech user.   where is laila?  i dont even know why they removed that introduction training in the desert. 

 

 

MMR means little anymore, as all players get into the few servers playing.  Smurfing/Alts has made MMR much steeper in value: if you get over 1600, you're playing 3+ year vets who know all the tricks.  If you are 1400, you're playing 1250 newbs or you're playihng someone who "would have been 2200 in '2014 MMR points'".

 

 

mmr means nothing with a community of 50 active players and 2-3 beginners

 

We, nearly all, even Kittens, who I watched play Predator and think is *much* improved from where I would guess he thinks he still is (what a sentence this is), are really setting a high bar.  Everyone I've seen lately has dodge timing and body-block/separation timing.  Everyone has secondary timing.  Everyone uses radar and predicts.  Everyone knows the maps and how to use verticality/3-dimensions.  Everyone has reasonable aim and learned to put ordnance where people *will be*.

 

 

train on consistent accuracy, and you are considered a pro. im sitting at 2000 rating because im good at landing tow rockets while strafing at the same time.

 

if you can guarantee your tow rocket to hit a target  3 times in a row, without missing, and immediately firing it when it goes off cooldown, you are a pro player.  it's pretty easy if you have 35 fps or higher. 

 

 

In 1898, the head of the US Patent Office claimed that all inventions which could be made had been made.  Are we near the skill ceiling as a playerbase? 

 

 

since hawken isn't released yet, it can't be considered made.  we are far from the skill ceiling because our population too small.

 

 

What happens if/when we do get a new platform/influx of new users (if that ever comes to pass)?  I think it would need to be pretty massive, or we'd continue to face exactly what we see now:  about 1 new player in 50 making it over the skill hump (such as Kittens).

 

 

new generation gamers have little to no heart.  when they lose, they just want to quit forever.  we have to spoon feed them, hug them, and kiss them in order for new players to stay.   everytime they finish a game, they must be rewarded with a cookie.


Edited by angryhampster, 06 June 2016 - 10:07 AM.

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#18
bacon_avenger

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...

new generation gamers have little to no heart.  when they lose, they just want to quit forever.  we have to spoon feed them, hug them, and kiss them in order for new players to stay.   everytime they finish a game, they must be rewarded with a cookie.

This statement reminds me of this ;)

 

2010-10-07.png


Edited by bacon_avenger, 16 July 2016 - 04:32 PM.

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#19
DingdongJR

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This statement reminds me of this ;)

 

2010-10-07.png

 

This is something I seriously don't get. Why are people rage quitting? You still get XP and credits at the end even if you lose, so what's the point?


Edited by DingdongJR, 16 July 2016 - 06:54 PM.


#20
BlackWarGreymon

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^The poor babies don't want  a loss on their win/loss stats, that'd be terrible.

 

If someone wants to quit, it should be within the first couple of minutes of the game starting, not 1 minute before the end of a 10 or 25 minute match- it's fairly obvious how tough the enemy team is, or how incompetent your own team is based on how they react at the start of a game. For example, if a siege match starts and most of your team:

 

1) doesn't immediately start moving, and is just milling around in the base after the barrier drops

2) clusters 4-deep around one Eu tree

3) doesn't bother to walk 5 feet around a corner to kill an obviously healing enemy

4) doesn't react to 'help requested' 5 times while they are all stood within spitting distance

5) hides in a corner of the map and all die at the same time while you are flanking and picking off their tech or sniper

6) something along those lines...

 

then you know you're gonna be wasting your time staying. Leaving at the end is just a sign of someone who cares more about their stats staying good enough to brag about (...) , rather than giving it their all and trying to win no matter what.

 

I laugh, but sometimes when I lose and think I had a bad game, I find my MMR has gone up several points; inversely, when I win against a weaker team, it barely moves. Better to fight hard and lose against a more skilled opponent, than to win against sitting ducks who merely boost your k/d ratio but hurt your MMR ( since killing players with a lower MMR than you doesn't help as much as killing a higher MMR player, and being killed by a lower MMR player really hurts your own MMR ).


:devil:


#21
PsychedelicGrass

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I sometimes see people that quit at the end of siege matches when it's clear who will win.. and I mostly figure it's because they're done playing the game, don't want to wait five minutes for the next match, want to play another game mode/server.. the match is essentially over, it's clear who's won and the last battleship is up, and some people understandably don't feel like waiting around for it to officially end just for a few extra kills.


I really don't think people care as much about win ratios or kdr or whatever as you think they do.
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What's the big fuzzy bunnyng deal? Lots of amazing people have committed suicide, and they turned out alright.

 


#22
1uster

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This is something I seriously don't get. Why are people rage quitting? You still get XP and credits at the end even if you lose, so what's the point?

 

Because we all have enough XP and HC you just can do it as an expression of disrespect directed to your team. The explanation is in the name - rage - it's a highly emotional reaction. At least for me. Sometimes it happens.



#23
1uster

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I partially agree, but then there is stuff like using the 180 air in a raider. I know this is a rather extreme example, and it's not game breaking or anything, but.. popping it's ability, boosting past your enemy for a close range shot quickly jumping, using the 180 air and boosting back again across the other side of the enemy, firing again, while your prey wonders what the hell is going on as you likely kill them in the process.

 

Please enlighten me. Why do you need the AIR 180 for it? Fuel bug?



#24
WmMoneyFrmMissouri

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Please enlighten me. Why do you need the AIR 180 for it? Fuel bug?


It's a very fast move that can disorient your enemies. If say you crept up from behind and did that as they turned around you'd be behind them again drilling their tail pipe. It can be very effective but it's very situational. Imo the loss of the fuel converter negates this benefit.

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#25
Call_Me_Ishmael

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Because we all have enough XP and HC you just can do it as an expression of disrespect directed to your team. The explanation is in the name - rage - it's a highly emotional reaction. At least for me. Sometimes it happens.

 

For me, it's the opposite.  I have enough XP and HC - and alternate accounts - I don't get fazed by much.  Some guys try to run their mouth or troll for a reaction, and I usually just mute them anymore, not worth any other reaction.

 

BT, DT.


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#26
BlackWarGreymon

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I really don't think SOME people care as much about win ratios or kdr or whatever as you think they do.

 

FTFY


:devil:


#27
JesusHatesWisc

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Its always good to grind out a derp siege because siege is the best deathmatch.  NO KILL LIMIT.


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#28
Arkhaun

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A post in another thread summed up a thought I'd had a lot lately.

 

  Everyone has secondary timing.  Everyone uses radar and predicts.  Everyone knows the maps and how to use verticality/3-dimensions.  Everyone has reasonable aim and learned to put ordnance where people *will be*.

 

 

this here is most of my games nowadays


SORRY CAPS

 

 

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#29
1uster

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It's a very fast move that can disorient your enemies. If say you crept up from behind and did that as they turned around you'd be behind them again drilling their tail pipe. It can be very effective but it's very situational. Imo the loss of the fuel converter negates this benefit.

 

Hmm. But still you can do the same on the ground, hit shift+s, and you get the same or not? Never tried the Air 180, should do that soon...



#30
WmMoneyFrmMissouri

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Hmm. But still you can do the same on the ground, hit shift+s, and you get the same or not? Never tried the Air 180, should do that soon...


Yes but the jump spin gives you a little distance to sweep back and avoid a little splash damage plus it's a faster move this way.
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